A popular way for big U.S. banks to boost profits may have run its course.
The practice of dipping into funds set aside for bad loans, known as releasing loan-loss reserves, has helped the industry weather weak loan demand and lower fee income. But it is expected to have a smaller impact on banks’ second-quarter earnings, which will start being unveiled on Friday, because loss rates and reserves are nearing their lower limits.
“This could be the first quarter where credit doesn’t bail out most banks,” Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden wrote in a recent report.
Analysts at Credit Suisse expect JPMorgan Chase & Co, the largest U.S. bank, to report $300 million worth of loan-loss reserve releases, down 80 percent from $1.5 billion in the second quarter of 2013. They expect releases to drop 40 percent at Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc and 30 percent at Wells Fargo & Co.
The decline in income from reserve releases is the latest obstacle for banks to increase earnings in an environment of slow economic growth and low interest rates.
Bankers have been able to justify large reserve releases as the economy gradually recovers from the financial crisis. As more borrowers make payments on time, banks can set aside less money for losses.